My Division Picks for 2026-27

The season opens tonight. Before a single game counts, here is how I think all four divisions finish, top to bottom. Carolina is the defending champion, having beaten Vegas in six games in June.

Next to last spring's standings, my order splits in two. In the West I barely moved anything. The Central's top five is exactly the top five from last season, and in the Pacific only San Jose moves more than one spot. In the East I disagree with last season almost everywhere: Florida climbs five spots, the Rangers four, and Pittsburgh drops four. Only 11 of the 32 teams sit where they finished. I did that on purpose: the Western races were decided by talent that is still in place, and several Eastern ones by injuries and a hot streak that I don't expect to repeat.

Atlantic

Tampa Bay. Montreal beat them in seven games in the first round, and the Lightning answered by adding John Carlson to a blue line that already had Victor Hedman, who played only 12 games last season. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still in net. Yanni Gourde is out until December after hip surgery. That's a depth loss, and a team with Nikita Kucherov at the top can absorb it.

Florida. This is the biggest bet in the piece. The Panthers finished seventh after losing 541 man-games to injury, with Aleksander Barkov out for the entire season after knee surgery, and they were coming off two straight Cup runs. Barkov says he is healthy and had 11 points in 10 games at the World Championship. On top of that they traded for Brady Tkachuk, so Matthew and Brady play together, and Jacob Markstrom replaces Sergei Bobrovsky in goal. Brad Marchand may miss the start after offseason surgery. Even so, I'd take a healthy Florida lineup over anyone in this division except Tampa.

Montreal. They went further than any team in the division: past Tampa in seven, past Buffalo in overtime of Game 7, and all the way to the conference final, where they lost to Carolina. Jakub Dobeš started all 19 playoff games and signed for three years. Chris Kreider arrives on a one-year deal, and Brendan Gallagher is gone to Vancouver. Kaiden Guhle is out four to five weeks after adductor surgery. Montreal ranks third only because I think the two teams ahead of it are that good.

Buffalo. The Sabres won the division, but they did it after an 11-14-4 start by going 39-9-5, and Daily Faceoff puts their 10.66% even-strength shooting in the unsustainable column. They lost Alex Tuch and Bowen Byram this summer, and both of their goalies, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Alex Lyon, got hurt in the last week of camp. Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson are still very good. I just don't believe in the pace.

Boston. Charlie McAvoy is suspended for the first six games for slashing Zach Benson in the playoffs. JJ Peterka is the notable addition. The Bruins are a playoff-bubble team whose results mostly depend on how Jeremy Swayman plays.

Ottawa. They traded Brady Tkachuk to Florida for picks and got swept by Carolina in the first round. William Eklund and André Burakovsky are useful additions, and Ottawa still has no one to fill Tkachuk's minutes.

Toronto. Toronto finished last, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, and allowed 299 goals, the most in the division. Then it changed nearly everything: John Chayka is the GM, Jim Hiller is the coach, Bobrovsky takes over in goal, and Gavin McKenna arrives after they won the lottery. On Monday they also sent Matthew Knies to Columbus for Kirill Marchenko. Auston Matthews says his knee is 100%. That's enough for me to move them up a spot. Moving them any higher would mean trusting a new coach, a 38-year-old goalie and an 18-year-old rookie at the same time.

Detroit. Steve Yzerman stepped down as GM in July. Dylan Larkin asked for a trade in June, lost the captaincy, and then got hurt before camp. Patrick Kane left for Chicago, and Simon Edvinsson is still unsigned. For a team that was already sixth, that is too much going wrong at once.

Metropolitan

Carolina. They are the champions. Brandon Bussi won the last three games of the Final, including the Game 6 shutout. Frederik Andersen left for Edmonton, and Seth Jarvis is on the injured non-roster list after shoulder surgery in June, though the club says he is ahead of schedule. One detail matters for fantasy: eleven Hurricanes are on the draft board, and none of them go in the first 50 picks. Their best-known player, Sebastian Aho, goes at 64.6.

Washington. Jordan Kyrou came from St. Louis, Tuch in a sign-and-trade with Buffalo, and Boone Jenner as a free agent. The Capitals went 8-2-0 over their last ten games last season, and the forward group is deeper than the one that did it. Alex Ovechkin is 41 and sat out the preseason with a lower-body injury. Spencer Carbery expects him to be ready for the opener in Carolina on 2 October. Rasmus Sandin is out after ACL surgery.

Philadelphia. The Flyers made the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and knocked out Pittsburgh in the first round. Joseph Woll came over from Toronto to pair with Dan Vladar, whose upper-body injury last week turned out to be day-to-day. Matvei Michkov reported to camp thirty pounds lighter. It's Rick Tocchet's second year, and I expect them to get a little better, not a lot.

NY Rangers. This is my second-biggest bet. The Rangers finished last after trading Artemi Panarin to Los Angeles at the deadline and playing through injuries to Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin. This summer they signed Pavel Dorofeyev, with 72 goals over two seasons, for seven years, traded Vincent Trocheck to Utah for Sean Durzi, and added Marcus Pettersson on defence. With a healthy Shesterkin they are a very different team, and 77 points was the bottom of what that roster can produce.

New Jersey. Sunny Mehta is the new GM, and Sheldon Keefe stayed as coach. Evan Rodrigues and Anthony Mantha add scoring, but Markstrom and Simon Nemec are gone, and the likely starter in goal is Jake Allen, who is 36. Jack Hughes can carry them up a spot. The crease keeps them from going higher.

Pittsburgh. The Penguins finished second, and I have them sixth. Sidney Crosby is 39 and his season ended with a knee injury at the Olympics. Evgeni Malkin is 40 and on a one-year deal. Stuart Skinner left, which leaves Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov in goal. Bryan Rust got hurt on Saturday. Dan Muse got a lot out of this group last year, and I don't expect it twice. The fantasy board agrees: not a single Penguin goes in the first 50 picks.

NY Islanders. Matthew Schaefer is already a top-20 pick, at 17.7, and Ilya Sorokin is still Ilya Sorokin. But Anders Lee left for Utah, and Mathew Barzal's knee flared up again in camp. He could still play in the opener. I'm not building a season around that.

Columbus. I'm dropping them three spots. Adam Fantilli held out for eight days of camp before signing for six years at $13.75 million. Elvis Merzlikins failed his physical after shoulder surgery and is out indefinitely, so Jet Greaves has the net. Zach Werenski vetoed a trade to Dallas in June, and depending on the outlet he either won't re-sign or very much wants to stay. On Monday they traded Kirill Marchenko to Toronto for Matthew Knies. The Blue Jackets also went 2-7-1 over their last ten games.

Central

My top five here is the same as last season's. I don't see a reason to reorder teams that were separated by six points or more and kept their cores.

Colorado. Colorado had 121 points and a +99 goal differential. Vegas swept them in the conference final, but a sweep in May doesn't cancel a season like that. Cale Makar signed for eight years at $20.4 million a season, the richest contract in league history. He also started camp with a lower-body injury from summer training. Valeri Nichushkin is gone to Columbus.

Dallas. Minnesota knocked them out in the first round, ending a run of three straight conference finals. Jason Robertson, who scored 45 goals, took a one-year deal at $12 million. Tyler Seguin is back from a torn ACL and Roope Hintz from a torn hamstring. This is still the second-best roster in the division.

Minnesota. Quinn Hughes arrived in December and gets his first full season in Minnesota, which is also the final year of his contract. The Wild won their first playoff series since 2015. Kirill Kaprizov's eight-year extension starts now. They are close to Dallas, and I still have them third.

Utah. Utah made the playoffs for the first time as a franchise. They lost Peterka, then added Trocheck and Lee, which makes them older and more dependable. Dylan Guenther scored 40 goals at 23. Fourth place is their spot.

St. Louis. Mason McTavish came from Anaheim for two first-round picks, and Connor McMichael arrived in the Kyrou trade. The net is the question. Joel Hofer (.910) outplayed Jordan Binnington (.873) last season, and the job is open.

Chicago. I have Chicago up two spots even though Connor Bedard is out until November after shoulder surgery. They signed Kane, paid Byram $12.5 million a year, and brought Roman Kantserov over from the KHL. The bet is that they stay close enough without Bedard for his return to lift them past two teams that are standing still. For fantasy, Bedard still goes at 36.2, which prices in no missed games at all.

Nashville. Nashville is retooling. Mavrik Bourque signed for six years, and Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos are still there. The problem is Juuse Saros, who is coming off a career-worst .894.

Winnipeg. Connor Hellebuyck asked for a trade, didn't report, and was suspended on 16 September. Elliotte Friedman reports that he isn't expected before the opener. Skinner starts, and Winnipeg finishes last. They finished seventh with a healthy Hellebuyck, and I don't see where the points come from without him.

Pacific

Vegas. Vegas won the division with only 95 points and then reached the Final, sweeping Colorado on the way. John Tortorella is gone, and Ryan Craig was promoted from the AHL. Dorofeyev left for the Rangers. Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner are still there, and so is a healthy Mark Stone. No one else in the Pacific has that much at the top of the lineup.

Edmonton. Mike Babcock is coaching, and McDavid's two-year extension starts this season. Andersen signed after winning the Cup with Carolina, but he hurt his knee in the Final and won't start the season. That leaves Tristan Jarry and Levi. Anaheim beat them in the first round. Second place is fine for a team this top-heavy.

San Jose. I'm moving the Sharks up two spots. Macklin Celebrini put up 115 points and signed for five years. San Jose added Jacob Trouba and Darnell Nurse to a defence that needed both. The goaltending is the problem: 25th in save percentage last season, and Yaroslav Askarov finished at .884. They have missed the playoffs seven years in a row, and with a league-average goalie I think that streak ends.

Anaheim. The Ducks won a round, beating Edmonton, and matched the Flyers' $18 million offer sheet on Leo Carlsson. Cutter Gauthier signed for six years. But Carlson, Trouba, Radko Gudas, Olen Zellweger and Kreider are all gone, four of them defencemen, and Troy Terry misses the first month after hip surgery.

Los Angeles. Anze Kopitar retired. Panarin gets a full season, but Kevin Fiala starts the season hurt, and the Kings were 29th in offence, 28th on the power play and 30th on the penalty kill. Peter Laviolette takes over after Colorado swept them in the first round.

Seattle. Bobby McMann and Mackie Samoskevich are the additions. Only four Kraken are on the draft board, a total only Vancouver falls below, and none of them goes before pick 109. The fantasy market doesn't see much there, and neither do I.

Vancouver. Vancouver finished last with 58 points and a -100 goal differential. They got Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium and Liam Öhgren back for Hughes, then added Brendan Gallagher and Luke Schenn this summer. Thatcher Demko had hip surgery in January and won't start the season. They gain a spot mostly because Calgary is in worse shape.

Calgary. Simon Nemec arrived from New Jersey and signed for five years, and the top line of Morgan Frost, Matt Coronato and Matvei Gridin is fun to watch. But Jonathan Huberdeau had hip resurfacing and will miss the opener, and Dustin Wolf dropped to .899. Calgary scored fewer goals than anyone in the league last season, and I don't see where the added offence comes from.

The bets, in one place

If I'm wrong this season, the mistake will most likely be in the East. Florida second, the Rangers fourth, Pittsburgh sixth and Buffalo fourth all go against last season's standings. Each of those picks assumes last year was an exception: an injury year, a hot streak, or older stars who held up one more time.

In the West I mostly left things alone. San Jose third and Chicago sixth are the only picks that assume a real change.

We'll come back to this at the midpoint, alongside the regrade of the preseason calls we promised yesterday.